Posted by Earlier this year, we lost contact with my mother while she was on holiday in Spain. We’d not heard from her for a couple of days, which was odd but not alarming… but then I missed a call from a strange number with a Spanish dialling code.
I called back, it rang out, I called back again, it rang out again, and then eventually I got a call back from someone at a hospital who didn’t really speak English, but was able to communicate that my mother had been taken there and admitted.
They said she was OK, but didn’t go into detail, and after that call, we didn’t hear a thing. Nada. No information from the hospital, no one answering the phone, and we couldn’t get hold of mum on her mobile.
We were in an information vacuum. We’ve all been there. You’re waiting for important news, but there’s tumbleweed. No news from anywhere, a silence that sends your brain spiralling and imagining any number of catastrophic scenarios.
Falling into the spiral
Everything turned out fine in the end – mum had been feeling unwell, but after treatment was doing fine. She’d left her mobile at home when the paramedics had taken her in, and reception was closed for the weekend so she couldn’t call us from there (which also answered the question of why no one was picking up the phone). Yet without any information, we’d all gone straight to worst-case scenarios.
I’m willing to bet you’ve done the same in the past – no news doesn’t just equal bad news, it’s the sign of the impending apocalypse! So why does that happen, and what can you do to stop yourself from automatically assuming the worst?
The psychology behind our panic
This experience perfectly illustrates a fundamental quirk of human psychology: when critical information is missing, our brains – which are hardwired for survival – tend to fill information gaps with assumptions, usually negative ones. This isn’t a character flaw; it’s what kept our ancestors alive in the wild and has survived in our DNA.
Our brains constantly try to anticipate what might happen next based on available information. When that information is incomplete or absent, the brain’s default setting is to assume the worst. This negativity bias was great when rustling bushes might have contained a predator, but in our modern world, it often leads us in the wrong direction.
This phenomenon is what we call catastrophising. When we don’t have complete information, our minds automatically jump to the most dramatic possible outcome. It’s why a delayed flight becomes a crash in our minds, why a friend’s unreturned text becomes evidence they’re angry with us, and why a boss’s cryptic email becomes a precursor to being fired.
The business cost of information vacuums
In business and investing, this natural tendency can lead to costly mistakes that reverberate far beyond personal anxiety. Consider market crashes: inexperienced investors often panic-sell based on incomplete information or market rumours, while seasoned investors maintain composure by focusing on historical data and market fundamentals.
The 2008 financial crisis provides a stark example. As news of failing banks dominated headlines, many retail investors sold their portfolios at rock-bottom prices, locking in massive losses. Those who understood the temporary nature of market volatility and had access to broader economic data often held their positions or even bought more, benefiting significantly during the recovery.
Similarly, in corporate environments, information vacuums can trigger organisational panic. When leadership doesn’t communicate clearly about company changes, employees’ imaginations run wild. Productivity drops, talented staff start job hunting, and office morale plummets – all because people filled the information void with their worst fears.
The social media echo chamber
Social media makes this problem exponentially worse. Echo chambers and algorithmic feeds can amplify misinformation at a speed and scale that we’ve never really seen before. The algorithms feed us what we want to hear, creating bubbles that reinforce our existing beliefs rather than challenging them with new perspectives. It’s like reading the same newspaper every day – you’re only getting one side of the story.
During the early days of the Pandemic, social media platforms became breeding grounds (no pun intended) for speculation and conspiracy theories. In the absence of complete scientific understanding about the virus, people filled the gaps with increasingly outlandish explanations.
Another good example from 2020 is the stock market volatility around GameStop – social media turned information vacuums into financial chaos. Reddit forums and Twitter threads became the primary source of investment advice (if you can call it that) for millions of retail investors, leading to massive price swings based more on sentiment than fundamentals.
Recognising the vacuum
The first step in overcoming information vacuum anxiety is recognising when you’re in one. Look for the warning signs: are your stress levels rising disproportionately to the actual known facts? Are you creating increasingly complex scenarios about what might be happening?
Perhaps confirmation bias is getting in the way and you’re seeking information that confirms your worst fears while ignoring contradictory evidence, or maybe you feel like you need to take some kind of action, even though you don’t know the full picture.
If you start to notice any of these patterns kicking in, it’s vital that you recognise that you’re probably making decisions based on fear rather than facts.
The alternative
When you’re in an information vacuum, the key is to seek out reliable data instead of making assumptions, and either take decisive action or accept the uncertainty. This requires developing a systematic approach to gathering and evaluating data before making decisions.
Start by asking yourself what you actually know, as opposed to what you’re assuming. Write down the facts – just the facts – on one side of a page, and your assumptions on the other. The difference is often startling.
Next, look for the most reliable sources of information for your particular situation. In business, this might mean reaching out to industry contacts, consulting financial reports, or seeking expert analysis. In personal situations, it could involve making direct phone calls, checking official sources, or finding and consulting with people who have relevant expertise.
The goal isn’t to eliminate all uncertainty – that’s impossible – but to ensure your decisions are based on the best available information rather than fear-driven speculation.
Lessons from the professionals
The most successful investors and business leaders never operate in information vacuums. Their decisions are based on concrete data rather than assumptions, and emotion never gets a look-in. Warren Buffett famously advised investors to ‘be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’ – a philosophy that requires the discipline to gather information when everyone else is panicking.
Successful entrepreneurs don’t let information gaps paralyse them. Instead, they develop rapid feedback loops – launching minimum viable products, conducting customer interviews, and iterating based on real data rather than assumptions. They understand that perfect information is rarely available, but they refuse to let that uncertainty drive their decision-making process.
The calm in the storm
Above all, if everyone around you is losing their cool, step away and keep calm. This approach might seem less exciting than acting on gut instinct, but it’s far more reliable in the long run.
The next time you find yourself in an information vacuum – whether that’s personal or professional – remember that your brain’s default assumptions are designed for survival, not accuracy. Take a breath, seek reliable information, and make decisions based on facts rather than fears. Your future self will thank you for it.